Prolonged dry weather through May has placed significant pressure on UK crop conditions, with both winter and spring crops affected, according to the latest AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds crop development report.
Following a drier-than-average April, limited rainfall during the first three weeks of May led to a deterioration in crop condition scores. Although wetter conditions later in the month brought some improvement, recovery has been patchy and moisture deficits persist in some regions, particularly on lighter soils.
As a result of the dry conditions, the proportion of winter cereal crops rated in good or excellent condition has fallen since April:
- 64% of winter wheat is now rated good or excellent, down from 74% a month ago
- 62% of winter barley is now rated good or excellent, down from 70% a month ago
- 71% of winter oats are now rated good or excellent, down from 81% a month ago
Meanwhile, 78% of winter oilseed rape is rated good or excellent, down from 84% last month, although crops continue to show good yield potentential.
Despite the month-on-month declines, wheat and barley conditions remain ahead of the past two seasons.
Spring crops have faced greater challenges, with establishment and early development affected by moisture stress. As a result, the condition scores highlight the impact of the dry start to the season.”
Regional variation is still pronounced, with parts of England reporting weaker crop conditions, particularly on lighter soils, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland generally show stronger performance.
Critical period for crop development
AHDB warns that the next two to three weeks will be crucial in determining yield potential. While fewer crops are currently rated poor or very poor compared with last year, many stay in ‘fair’ condition, leaving scope for improvement if rainfall comes soon.
Recent high temperatures have also increased crop stress, with visible leaf rolling in wheat highlighting that the benefits of late-May rainfall may be short-lived.
Helen Plant, AHDB Lead Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds), said:
“The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves. While recent rainfall has helped in some areas, it hasn’t been enough to fully reverse earlier impacts, and variability across regions remains a key feature of this season.
“The next few weeks will be critical. With many crops currently rated in ‘fair’ condition, there is still potential to support yields if further rainfall arrives, but the window for recovery—especially for winter cereals—is narrowing.”
| Proportion of UK* winter crops in good or excellent condition | ||||||
| Crop | May-23 | May-24 | May-25 | May-26 | ||
| Winter wheat | 85% | 55% | 36% | 64% | ||
| Winter barley | 88% | 62% | 48% | 62% | ||
| Winter oats | 80% | 53% | 52% | 71% | ||
| Winter OSR | 63% | 49% | 52% | 78% | ||
| *data is for GB crops in 2023 and 2025. | ||||||
| Source: AHDB, data collected by RSK ADAS Ltd (2023, 2025, 2026) and The Andersons Centre (2024). | ||||||
The season’s challenges come at a time when farm businesses are already under financial pressure. Input costs are still elevated, with fertiliser prices rising sharply, while forward feed wheat prices for harvest 2026 are only around 5% higher year-on-year.
Without sufficient rainfall to support yields, there is a risk of further pressure on farm profitability and cash flow, which could influence cropping decisions for harvest 2027.
There are early signs of potential relief, with forecasts suggesting more unsettled weather in some regions.
AHDB will publish its final 2026 crop development report on 26 June.
